17 Symmetrical Triangle Stock Plays Flagged This PastWeek
The triangle pattern, also called the "coil," appears in three varieties:
1. symmetrical, 2. ascending, and 3. descending.
Generally, a triangle pattern is considered to be a continuation or consolidation pattern. Sometimes, however, the formation marks a reversal of a trend.
Symmetrical triangles are generally considered neutral, ascending triangles are bullish, and descending triangles are bearish. From a time perspective, triangles are usually considered to be intermediate patterns. Usually, it takes longer than a month to form a triangle. Seldom will a triangle last longer than three months. If a triangle pattern does take longer than three months to complete, Murphy advises that the formation will take on major trend significance.
Converging trend lines of support and resistance gives the triangle pattern its distinctive shape. This occurs, Kahn explains, because "the trading action gets tighter and tighter until the market breaks out with great force." Buyers and sellers find themselves in a period where they are not sure where the market is headed. Their uncertainty is marked by their actions of buying and selling sooner, making the pattern look like an increasingly tight coil moving across the chart.
As the range between the peaks and troughs marking the progression of price narrows, the trend lines meet at the "apex," located at the right of the chart. The "base" of the triangle is the vertical line at the left of the chart which measures the vertical height of the pattern.
Current Stocks That Fit This Pattern Within The Last Week
A symmetrical triangle shows two converging trend lines, one is ascending, the other is descending - creating a sideways symmetrical triangle. The formation occurs because prices are making both lower highs and higher lows. Elaine Yager, Director of Technical Analysis at Investec Ernst and Company in New York and a member of Recognia's Board of Advisors, notes that the pattern should display two highs and two lows, all touching the trend line as - a minimum of four reversal points is necessary to draw the two converging trend lines. The diagram has these points noted.
1. symmetrical bottoms - prices trend down then form lower highs and higher lows. Breakout can be either downward or upward. 2. symmetrical s - prices trend up then form lower highs and higher lows. Breakout can be either downward or upward.
A symmetrical triangle pattern is relatively easy to identify. In addition, triangle patterns can be quite reliable to trade with very low failure rates. There is a caution concerning trading these patterns, however. As mentioned previously, a triangle pattern can be either continuation or reversal patterns. Typically, they are continuation patterns. To achieve the reliability for which the triangle is well known, technical analysts advise waiting for a clear breakout of one of the trend lines defining the triangle.
Triangle patterns are usually susceptible to definite and dependable analysis, with the proviso that the investor must wait for a reliable, as opposed to a premature, breakout. Bulkowski advises that, in general, the failure rate for triangles drops significantly if the investor waits for a valid breakout and, once that breakout occurs, the pattern proves strongly reliable.
Murphy advises that a minimum penetration criterion would be a closing price outside the trend line and not just an intra day penetration. Similarly, Schabacker warns of the "false moves" and "shake-outs" which most commonly attend the triangle.
Volume is an important factor to consider when determining whether a formation is a true triangle. Typically, volume follows a reliable pattern: volume should diminish as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range of highs and lows. However, when breakout occurs, there should be a noticeable increase in volume. If this volume picture is not clear, investors should be cautious about whether the pattern is a true triangle.
This traditional volume pattern develops because of investor sentiment during the creation of a triangle. Investors are uncertain. This uncertainty means that they are buying and selling sooner, which translates into a narrowing of the highs and lows, creating the "coil" shape, indicative of the triangle . Because investors are uncertain, many are holding on to their stocks, awaiting the market's next move. When breakout finally does occur, there's a surge in market activity because investors are finally certain enough about the direction of the market to release their pent-up supply or demand.
1. Occurrence of a Breakout - Technical analysts pay close attention to how long the triangle takes to develop to its apex. The general rule, as explained by Murphy, is that prices should break out - clearly penetrate one of the trend lines - somewhere between three-quarters and two-thirds of the horizontal width of the formation.6 The break out, in other words, should occur well before the pattern reaches the apex of the triangle. . Adherence to this rule is strongly advised by Yager, She adds that the closer the breakout occurs to the apex the higher the risk of a false breakout.
To take the measurement, begin by drawing the two converging trend lines. Measure the length of the triangle from its base to the apex. Next, plot the distance along the horizontal width of the pattern where the breakout should take place. If prices remain within the trend lines beyond the three-quarters point of the triangle, technical analysts will approach the triangle with caution. In much the same manner as Yager, Murphy warns that if prices don't breakout of the trend lines before that point, the triangle "begins to lose its potency and prices will simply drift out beyond the apex with no surge in either direction.
2. Price Action - Unlike ascending and descending triangles which give advance notice of their intentions, the symmetrical triangle tends to be a neutral pattern. Murphy advises that the symmetrical triangle is generally a consolidation pattern. This means an investor can look to see the direction of the previous trend and make the basic assumption that the trend will continue. However, many experts advise investors that because the breakout direction could go either way that they wait until the breakout occurs before investing in or selling the stock. Schabacker refers to a symmetrical triangle as a "picture of hesitation.
3. Measuring the Triangle - To project the minimum short-term price objective of a triangle, an investor must wait until the price has broken through the trend line. When the price breaks through the trend line, the investor then knows whether the pattern is a consolidation or a reversal formation.
To calculate the minimum price objective, calculate the "height" of the formation at its widest part - the "base" of the triangle. The height is equal determined by projecting a vertical line from the first point of contact with the trend line on the left of the chart to the next point of contact with the opposite trend line. In other words, measure from the highest high point on one trend line to the lowest low point on the opposite trend line.
Both these points will be located on the far left of the formation. Next, locate the "apex" of the triangle (the point where the trend lines converge). Take the result of the measurement of the height of the triangle and add it to the price marked by the apex of the triangle if an upside breakout occurs and subtract it from the apex price if the triangle experiences a downside breakout.
For example, working with a symmetrical triangle, assume the highest high of the pattern occurs at 100 and the lowest low at 80. The height of the pattern is 20 (100 - 80 = 20). The apex of the triangle occurs at 90. The pattern has an upside breakout. Using the measuring rule, the target price is 110 (90 + 20 = 110).
4. Duration of the Triangle - As mentioned before, the triangle is a relatively short-term pattern. It may take up to one month to form and it usually forms in less than three months.
5. Forecasting Implications - Once breakout occurs, the symmetrical triangle tends to be a reliable pattern. Bulkowski calculates failure rates ranging between 2% and 6% for symmetrical triangles after a valid breakout.
6. Shape of Symmetrical Triangle - The pattern should display two highs and two lows, all touching the trend line - a minimum of four reversal points is necessary to draw the two converging trend lines.
7. Volume - Investors should see volume decreasing as the pattern progresses toward the apex of the triangle. At breakout, however, there should be a noticeable increase in volume. Like reversal patterns, volume is more important on the upside than the downside. Therefore, an investor will be particularly interested in seeing an increase in volume on breakout if the pattern is moving upwards. Similarly, if prices are experiencing an uptrend, investors should be looking for volume to increase as prices move up and fall as prices fall back.
8. Premature or False Breakouts - Bulkowski calls them "premature" false breakouts and Schabacker refers to them as "false moves" or "shake-outs." Both agree that triangles are among the patterns most susceptible to this phenomenon. Because the pattern can be either a reversal or continuation pattern, investors are particularly susceptible to false moves or, at the very least, confused by them. In addition, because volume becomes so thin as the triangle formation progresses to the apex, it takes very little activity to bring about an erratic and false movement in price, taking the price outside of the trend lines.
To avoid taking an inadvisable position in a stock, some investors advise waiting a few days to determine whether the breakout is a valid one. Typically, a false move corrects itself within a week or so. A key sign of a possible false move is low volume. If there's no pick up in volume around the breakout, investors should be wary. Typically, a good breakout from a triangle formation will be accompanied by a definite surge in volume.
There are situations, however, where a false move will occur with high volume. According to Schabacker, these are the most dangerous variety of false moves. The only advice experts can give to investors who fall prey to one of these false moves is to reverse their positions as soon as they become aware of the true movement of the stock.
It is also advisable to be increasingly suspicious of triangle patterns where the breakout occurs very close to the apex. Because trading is so thin at this point, there is an increased likelihood that a false move could occur. Also, false moves are more likely with symmetrical triangles, maintains Schabacker. With the right-angle triangles, the trend is suggested by the pattern itself. Therefore, a deviation from that trend is more likely to raise the suspicion that it may be a "false move."
