Weekly Outlook – Some Major Trend Changes Continue To Develop
I have divided this update into 10 separate sections with an easy to use left hand menu. You can go right to the area that interests you most ranging from commodities, currencies, major averages, and the volatility index.
Section 1 – S&P 500 Futures Short Term Pattern – Descending Triangle breakdown looks poised to happen giving us a short term target with this pattern about 25-30 handles below current levels at the time of this update.
Section 2 – S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart – Bearish head and shoulders top pattern still in play and targets remain the same per all the previous updates from the day the S&P 500 topped back in March.
Section 3 – US Dollar Index – Continues to break out of the bullish symmetrical triangle, however keep in mind today would make the 10th straight trading day the greenback has been in rally mode.
Section 4 – Copper Futures – Copper futures have broken the 2011 up trend line and are now poised for more new swing lows.
Section 5 – Silver Futures – Silver futures continue to sell off as oversold. In this update I review what overbought and oversold really means.
Section 6 – Crude Oil Futures – Weekly chart of oil futures as we now have a bearish trend reversal on the daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. It is getting closer to the 2009 up trend line which would be around the 88 level.
Section 7 – Euro Dollar Index – Breaking down out of a descending triangle as we enter new multi-month lows against the dollar, quadruple bottoms don’t hold, they never have and never will.
Section 8 – Australian Dollar Index – This section of the update covers the new 1-2-3 Bearish Trend Reversals on the monthly charts including the Aussie as well as breaking down from the 2009 longer term up trend line.
Section 9 – Russell 2,000 Using the Tracking ETF ‘IWM’ – What the 1-2-3 Bearish Trend Reversal could bring in the months to come, while it’s not every index that is going through a long term trend change as I mention in this section and the Australian Dollar section we have a breaking technical event situation happening that I will review later in the week as this new technical development unfolds.
Section 10 – Volatility Index – Breakout of a falling wedge reversal with areas of support and resistance and where I expect the volatility index to trade over the coming days to next week or so.
Classic is a term used to refer to a group of patterns that typically have a longer-term horizon (greater than 12 days) and which have distinct price swings such that the price swings form distinctive patterns. The names of classic patterns often reflect the shape of the formation such as the Double Top, Double Bottom, Head and Shoulders Top, Ascending Triangle and so on.
- Ascending Continuation Triangle
- Bottom Triangle
- Continuation Diamond (Bullish)
- Continuation Wedge (Bullish)
- Diamond Bottom
- Double Bottom
- Flag (Bullish)
- Head and Shoulders Bottom
- Megaphone Bottom
- Pennant (Bullish)
- Rounded Bottom
- Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish)
- Triple Bottom
- Upside Breakout
- Continuation Diamond (Bearish)
- Continuation Wedge (Bearish)
- Descending Continuation Triangle
- Diamond Top
- Double Top
- Downside Breakout
- Flag (Bearish)
- Head and Shoulders Top
- Megaphone Top
- Pennant (Bearish)
- Rounded Top
- Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bearish)
- Top Triangle
- Triple Top
Short-term patterns are based on the shape and relationship of the candlestick(s) or price bar(s) representing one or multiple consecutive trading days. This includes patterns such as the Hanging Man and the Gap Up. The technical event is the confirmation that the pattern has formed in the price bar(s). These Technical Event® opportunities are useful for suggesting possible short-term price movement. They are also useful for supporting or refuting the possible price movement suggested by classic patterns. Short-term patterns are often considered as supplementary information.
- Engulfing Line (Bullish)
- Exhaustion Bar (Bullish)
- Inside Bar (Bullish)
- Inverted Hammer
- Island Bottom
- Key Reversal Bar (Bullish)
- Two Bar Reversal (Bullish)
Indicators that are currently supported are based on moving average calculations.
Bullish or Bearish:
Oscillators are based on mathematical formulas that incorporate historical or recent prices of the stock.
Bullish or Bearish:
- Bollinger Bands
- Commodity Channel Index
- Fast Stochastic
- KST (Short-term, Intermediate-term, Long-term)
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Slow Stochastic
- Williams %R