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You've got to go where the money is.
All my buddies in the Trending123 war-room know how I feel about buy-and-hold "investing." It's strictly for suckers.
Virtually every stock has its moment in the sun, and that's when you want to own it. And remember, buying is only half of the equation - you've got to know when to sell, as well.
1. I'm sure many thousands of people had "paper profits" in Citigroup.
2. Paper profits in Countrywide Financial.
3. Paper profits in X, Y or Z before they plunged.
But what the heck good are paper profits??? You can't spend them!
That's why I, my friend, am not a stock "investor."
Investors tend to buy "good stocks" and hold them for the long-term. Problem is there are no "good stocks" in my book. Only good trades.
That's why my Trending123 subscribers and I don't own stocks, we merely "rent" them.
And while other "gurus" preach that you should always be in the market, I say that's BULL. For example, we sold everything at Trending123 before last summer's huge swoon. Sold everything and banked our profits, because as I like to say.
Profits ain't profits until you take them.
And boy-oh-boy, do my subscribers take profits
How do we do it? By getting in and out of trades quickly, for smaller profits that compound into huge annual gains. That's how you build a winning track record. And that's how we average an 85.09% annualized gain on each trade - even with the losers thrown in!
20.00% from Mastercard in 6 weeks
26.00% from Microsoft in 1 month
33.85% from Apple in 6 weeks
27.45% from Biogen in 1 month
26.24% from Microvision in 1 month
29.13% from Targeted Genetics in 3 weeks
27.05% from Alanco Tech in 3 weeks
These are typical of the profits you can expect when you try Trending123.
Magnetic computer memory (MRAM) combines the speed of SRAM with the non-volatility of Flash. It also offers a low-power memory solution, which eventually may match DRAM's capacity and density. All this makes MRAM look like the universal memory solution of the future.
A just-released report from NanoMarkets, LC -- a industry analyst firm based here -- claims that the MRAM market will grow to $2.1 billion by 2008, and $16.1 billion by 2012. Additional information about the report can be found at www.nanomarkets.net.
Near-term opportunities that NanoMarkets sees emerging for MRAM include:
Cell phones, PDAs and notebooks -- MRAM is an attractive alternative to deploying both Flash and DRAM. It can save money and space. With software applications residing in memory, mobile devices will rapidly power up to exactly where they were when they were turned off. This will prove useful for someone who wants to use his notebook for a few minutes between flights. With its strong ties to Motorola, and early entry into the MRAM business, NanoMarkets believes Freescale will help give MRAM credibility in the cell phone sector.
Computing and networking -- MRAM will be used to avoid boot-up delays and to provide faster access to hard drives and non-volatile backup capabilities. At present, BIOS tends to use high cost, low density EEPROM or battery backed-up SRAM and volatile memory is used to alleviate I/O bottlenecks. In such applications, MRAM could prove in economically. Cypress -- another early MRAM supplier -- is already pushing its MRAM product as an SRAM replacement, while IBM views MRAM as a replacement for embedded DRAM. (IBM is working jointly with Infineon in this space.)
Factory automation -- microcontrollers and robots typically employ both RAM and PROMs/Flash. Lower costs will be achieved by replacing these two chips with one MRAM device.
RFID -- RFID tags need low-cost, non-volatile memory and at least one company (Micromem Technologies) is targeting this sector with MRAM products. A price point that makes MRAM economically viable for RFID applications will almost certainly push MRAM into other cost-sensitive areas.
Military -- MRAM is "rad hard" which makes it suitable for use in missiles and spacecraft and perhaps on battlefields where equipment could potentially be exposed to tactical nuclear weapons. Honeywell is already selling products for this sector.
In addition to analyzing the current and future opportunities for MRAM, NanoMarkets' new report, "Magnetic Memory: An Analysis and Forecast of the Market for MRAM" analyzes the strategies of 20 firms that are actively engaged in pursuing MRAM-related revenues. These include some of the giants of the electronics industry such as Hewlett-Packard, NEC, Philips and Toshiba, as well as smaller players such as NVE, Spintron and Trikon.
NVE is a leader in the practical commercialization of spintronics, a nanotechnology that many experts believe represents the next generation of microelectronics. NVE licenses its MRAM intellectual property and sells spintronic products, including sensors and couplers, to revolutionize data sensing and transmission.
Arnoldi 11/29/07
There is a large commercial and defense market for MRAM technology. This includes small electronic devices such as Cell phones, PDAs, music/video players, computers, network devices, RFID, and factory automation equipment where MRAM provides an attractive alternative to current non-volatile memory technologies. There are many defense applications from spacecraft to land based weapon systems that are looking at MRAM, since it is not affected by radiation. For example, a nuclear pulse that would knock out most current electronic devices does not affect MRAM. The overall MRAM market is estimated to grow 8-fold by 2012.
NVE has a market cap of $110M with 4.64M shares outstanding, and a float of 4.6M shares. It has increased EPS 160% over last year, and Sales Growth is 35% higher than last year. The company had a net profit of 32% in 2007 compared to 6.5% for the Electronics industry, along with a ROE of 24.4% to 18.1% for the Electronics industry.
The company has beat Earnings Estimates the past 3 quarters, after a couple of negative earnings surprises in 2006. They have revised Earnings downward for current quarter ending in Dec07. Overall Earnings are projected to grow by 30% in 2008 and 20% for 2009.
NVE also grew sales to $16M last year, after 3 previous years of stagnant sales of $12M per year. This represented the largest year to year sales growth in company history. Sales are projected to grow by an average of 20% in 2008 and 2009. The company has free cash flow of $5M with no long-term debt and is in the best financial shape since the company’s inception in 1989. In this tight credit market as a result of the Subprime blow-up, NVE is well positioned from both a cutting edge product with a large future market and financial standpoint to thrive in this environment.
pmfischer 11/29/07
On 9-4-07 NVE Corporation announced they were "notified by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office of the expected grand of a patent relating to magnetothermal Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory (MRAM). MRAM is an integrated-circuit memory which is fabricated with nanotechnology and which uses elecron spin to store data. MRAM may have the potential to combine many of the best attributes of different types of semiconductor memories. Magnetothermal MRAM is a next-generation MRAM technology that uses a combination of ultra-fast magnetic fields and heat pulses, both from electrical current, to reduce the energy required to write data and allow reduction of the memory cell size while maintaining thermal stability. It may have the potential to increase MRAM density, increase speed, and reduce powere, all of which could enable broader MRAM use in the future. The grant brings NVE's patent total to 45. The company has more than 100 patents worldwide issued, pending or licensed from others. NVE is a leader in the practical commercialization of spintronics, a nanotechnology that many experts believer represents the next generation of microelectronics. NVE licenses its MRAM intellectual property and sells spintronic products, including sensors and couplers, to revolutionize data sensing and transmission. " (QuoteMedia News)
Second Quarter Results were reported Oct., 17, 2007, "six months ended Sep. 30, 2007. Product sales for the quarter increased 14% over the prior-year quarter to $4.31 million from $3.78 million. Total revenue, consiting of product stales and conract research and development revenue, increased 14% to $5.00 million for the second quarter fiscal 2008 from $4.4 million in the prior-year quarter. Net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 increased 28% to $1.64 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, compared to $1.28 million, or $.27 per share , for the prior-year quarter. Bottom line: Record revenues drove strong earnings. We also renewed agreements with two important customers, St. Jude Medical and Avago Technologies." (QuoteMedia News)
Today, 11/29/07 Open $25.50, High $28.35, Low $25.09, Close $27.92, Change $3.32 Up, Change 13.50%, Volume 130.86K
52 Week High/Low $41.95/$20.75, EPS(TTM) 1.23, Shares 4.64M
PE Ratio 20.00, Market Cap $129.M. Float 4.62M, Short Interest 1.14M (as of 11/9/07)
Short Int Ratio 17.50, % of Float 24.60%
Non-Corp Insider Hold'gs 0.30% (as of 9/1/07), Instituion Hold'gs 46.80% (as of 10/01/07)
NVEC Industry: Electronic Instruments & Controls. Sector: Technology. NVEC outperforms its Industry, outperforms its Sector, and outperforms the S&P 500. The average 20 day volume is 81,477, the Current Zacks Score is 3, the next EPS Report Date (estimate) 01-16-08. NVEC is not Optionable. Oveall rating of Good, Average, or Poor, NVEC is rated GOOD! (Incometrader.com)
What all the above plus JL's technical analysis tells me is that NVEC appears to be "as tenacious as a bulldog with a pork chop", "it's slicker than gorilla snot," "is going to run as fast as a turpentined cat" and "will climb like a scalded ape."
GOTP 11/29/07
A fundamental analysis of NVEC
Disclosure: I am a holder of NVEC shares.
By: Batting 500
First lets take a look at the Key Statistics, available at yahoo.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NVEC
I type like I have fingers made of sausages, so check out all the numbers for yourself.
The Market cap of this company is 129.41M this is a small company. This should mean lots of room to grow.
The Trailing P/E of 22.83 is reasonable; compare it to the average P/E of the Semiconductor - Specialized industry of 21.80. The growth of the firm shows the PEG Ratio is .79, this makes the P/E even more reasonable when you have that much growth.
The Price/Sales ratio of 6.29 is higher then its competitors. I surmise this is due to the licensing agreements that this company has.
The Profit Margin is 32.18%, nice.
The Operating Margin is 43.27%, nice.
The Return on Assets is 19.85%, nice.
The Return on Equity is 24.45%, nice.
The Quarterly Revenue Growth 13.80%, nice.
The Quarterly Earnings Growth 28.20%, nice.
The Quarterly Earnings grew faster than the Quarterly Revenue; with many companies the Earnings will grow slower when compared to the Revenue.
This Company has 0 Debt (it has some current liabilities but no long term debt). This leaves it options if it has difficulties in the future.
The last reported Short Ratio (26 Oct 07) was 14.2 days. The number of shares short did diminish from the prior month from 1.38M to 1.32M. But look at that Short Ratio, 14.2 days, Short Squeeze anyone?
Cash Flow Statement Analysis
My favorite financial statement let us look at the annual first (numbers in thousands).
Most recent NI for FY '07 was 4,781, compared to 1,798 in '06 and 1,758 '05. So NI has been increasing year over year. One thing to keep an eye on is the amount of money the company has been raising by selling stock. The Co. raised 254 in '06 and 389 in '05. but only raised 26 in '07. So the bleeding of shares slowed the last FY. What else sticks out on the annual? Well the huge increase in Investments, the company spent (8,167) in the most recent FY. (the numbers in parentheses shows where the company spent money).
Now lets look at the Quarterly Cash Flow Statement.
What we should look for is any huge deviations in the most recent quarters. The NI has grown in each of the last 2 quarters. Investments have slowed down the last 2 quarters. And finally Cash has grown just a little bit each of the last 2 quarters. How about the bleeding of shares? Well, the Co sold 42 (numbers in thousands) in the quarter ended in June and 2 the most recent quarter. Not bad at all, we want to make sure shareholders are buying their shares on the market like the rest of us. (and from us at higher values)
Income Statement Analysis
The one interesting thing I see here is that the Cost of Revenue has gone done each of the last 3 years at the same time as the Total Revenue has gone up. BUT dig into the quarterlies and you will see that the most recent quarter Cost of Revenue has cone up a tad. From 1,443 (numbers in thousands) for the quarter ended June to 1,851 for the most recent quarter ended Sept. If we annualize that 1,851 (multiply it x4) it would show a cost of revenue of 7,404 which would be an increase from the most recent Yearly Cost of Revenue of 5,788. Keep an eye on the Cost of Revenues for the Quarters going forward.
Balance Sheet Analysis
What sticks out here? The increase in investments; Long Term Investments specifically. So, what exactly is that approximately 8,000 (numbers in thousands) increase in investments?
Other Analysis
Now lets look at the auditors report, same link page 25, is there anything that the Auditors point out? Yes, the company adopted “Share-based Paymentâ€, so they have moved the Stock Options from the Balance Sheet to the Income Statement.
Want to get scared? Goto page 9 and read the entries under ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS. This section goes to page 13.
Finally
Overall, I like this one. I like small quick growing companies. Don't want to see it stumble for even one quarter though.
Be financial prudent and do your own analysis.
Batting500 11/29/07
