Economists are good at predicting recessions. They've predicted eight of the last three. -- there is no shortage of "professional" cynics all to trigger-happy to forecast doom and gloom.

Since 1940, 81% of Presidential election years have seen gains in the S&P 500 Index.

Also since 1940, only 1 Presidential election year (2000) has seen over a 3% loss in the S&P 500 Index.

Even in 3 of 4 other Presidential election years that saw the start of a bear market (1948, 1956, 1968 and 1980), the S&P 500 Index finished the year with a gain.

In every bull market since 1942, investors gradually gave higher price-to-earnings ratios to stocks as those rallies unfolded. Indeed, the average P/E ratio for the S.& P. 500 has typically grown from 13.5 at the start of new bull markets to 17.3 by their fourth birthdays.

The current bull, which was born on Oct. 10, 2002, started with a P/E ratio of 27.1, according to S.& P. Four years later, the ratio was actually much lower, at 16.3. (All of these figures are based on trailing 12-month earnings, using generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP.)

Why are investors stingier with their investment dollars this time around?

Part of the explanation may simply be the hangover from the bear market of 2000 to 2002.