Apple Inc.'s retail stores are running out of iPhones, a sign the company may soon introduce a new version of the Web-surfing handset, Piper Jaffray & Co. said.

At least 20 of Apple's 180 stores in the U.S. are out of iPhones and Apple is telling online shoppers it may take as long as seven days to fill their orders, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster of Minneapolis said in a report today.

``We are working to replenish iPhone supplies as quickly as we can,'' Apple spokesman Steve Dowling said. ``Our stores continue to receive shipments every day.''

The short supply may mean Apple is preparing a new iPhone that operates on so-called third-generation wireless networks, Munster said. Those networks allow faster Internet downloads than are available on the two models Apple now sells. The new version may sell for $400 and look like the current model, he said.

Apple, based in Cupertino, California, rose $6.03, or 4.2 percent, to $149.53 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares, which Munster advises investors to buy, have declined 25 percent this year.

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SanDisk Soars on Asian Memory Prices

SanDisk Soars As Higher Asian Memory Prices Add Confidence to Market

Memory chip maker SanDisk Corp. soared Tuesday as Asian competitors raised prices after nearly two years of oversupply and depressed profit margins.

Piper Jaffray analyst Amit Kapur said in an interview that the announcement by two major Asian chip makers on Monday has helped bring back confidence to the sector and said prices may stabilize in the next few quarters.

Kapur said March prices suggest that the market is already beginning to stabilize.

The market may have shown undue concern for SanDisk's profitability, he said, especially as the company's main product, NAND flash chips, continue to penetrate the cell phone market.

He said there is strong NAND demand in the high end of the cell phone market but said demand is increasingly coming from the mid-range cell phone sector. This should be a strong driving force in the next few years, he added.

SanDisk shares rose $2.20, or 9.8 percent, to close at $24.77 Tuesday. They have traded in the last 12 months between $19.54 and $59.75.

Semiconductor Materials Post Record Revenues for Fourth Straight Year

The global semiconductor materials market grew 14 percent in 2007 and is forecasted to grow over 11 percent in 2008 according to the latest materials forecast from SEMI. While the semiconductor industry grew three percent in 2007 to reach the $256 billion published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the global semiconductor materials market grew 14 percent in 2007 to reach a record $42 billion.

Growth was seen in both the wafer fabrication materials and packaging sectors with increases of 17 percent or $25 billion and nine percent or $17 billion respectively. Japan continues to dominate worldwide semiconductor materials consumption at 22 percent share due to its large wafer fab and packaging base. Taiwan has held onto the number two spot in terms of consumption of semiconductor materials for the past four years driven by strong growth in wafer foundries and packaging subcontractors. The Rest of World region (ROW), which aggregates Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, other areas of Southeast Asia and smaller global markets, claims the third largest materials market due to packaging materials. The semiconductor materials market in China is growing at the fastest rate given the new capacity coming on-line from a previously small base.

"As the semiconductor companies continue to ship record amounts of units, demand for materials is increasing as well," said Dan Tracy, senior director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. "Heightened demand in addition to the tight supply for various gases, silicon, and the widespread adoption of advanced packaging technologies are resulting in very strong revenue growth for semiconductor materials suppliers."

SINGAPORE, April 14 (Reuters) - Equity markets have found a bottom and are poised to hit new highs in the second half of this year, according to a senior chartist at Dutch-Belgian bank Fortis.

Paul Nesbitt, London-based technical analysis director at Fortis Private Bank, told Reuters on Monday that the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI may rally to 15,781 points this year, a gain of more than a quarter from Friday's close of 12,325.42.

His forecasts, based on trend lines linking the market's recent lows as well as technical analysis such as Wave Theory, applied to European stock markets as well as older Asian equity benchmarks such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI and Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI, he said.

"I would expect these markets, based on history, to hit a new high," he said, adding that many technical indicators showed the markets' recent reverses were "corrections within an ongoing bull" rather than the start of a bear market.

The exception was Japan's Nikkei 225 index .N225, which is still in a bear market trend, he said.

He also said many stock markets have given up about 38 percent of their gains since the start of the latest rally, which based on Fibonacci charts, suggested the markets have found a bottom.

Some investors use charts rather than economic fundamentals predict movements in financial markets.

One of the most popular charting methods involves the use of Fibonacci numbers, based on the work of a 13th century Italian mathematician, which suggest markets tend to find support or resistance at certain "golden ratios" commonly found in nature.

Elliott Wave, another popular charting tool, predicts markets rally in a certain pattern with three periods of gains interspaced with two periods of correction.

Turning to other markets, Nesbitt said he recommended that investors pare down their exposure to U.S. 10-year bonds as yields could begin to rise sharply and soon.

Historically, the May/June period was the time when the outlook for bond yields and interest rates typically changed direction.

He also said oil prices CLc1 could fall to around $90-95 per barrel in coming weeks, from just below $110 currently, although the upward trend in prices remained intact.

According to him, oil appeared to be approaching the end of the third leg of an Elliott Wave formation, which suggested the commodity could lose 38 percent to 50 percent of its recent gain before resuming its uptrend.

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IBM posted stronger-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday and raised its 2008 outlook, boosting the shares 2.7 percent and sending an encouraging signal about technology earnings in the face of a weak U.S. economy.

International Business Machines Corp's technology services, consulting and software revenues were particularly strong and investors expressed relief a day after microchip maker Intel Corp (INTC) also gave an upbeat outlook for the year.

"This is great for the Street, great for technology," said Ted Parrish, co-portfolio manager at Henssler Equity Fund. "IBM is a bellwether for global technology issues, especially the services area."

IBM shares have risen more than 20 percent since its last earnings report in January on investor optimism the company was better sheltered than rivals from the U.S. economic downturn.

The Armonk, New York-based company gets about two-thirds of its revenue from outside the United States and recurring revenue from services and software contracts accounts for about half its business, providing a buffer from sharp turns in the economy.

First-quarter net income rose 26 percent to $2.32 billion, or $1.65 per share, beating the average analyst forecast by 20 cents, according to Reuters Estimates. It raised its full-year earnings-per-share forecast to at least $8.50 per share from at least $8.25 in February.

"The magnitude of the beat was unexpected," said Zach Rosenstock, an analyst at Wayne Hummer Wealth Management. "You're seeing strength in all of their business lines."

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Semiconductor Market Trends

Even though it may have not felt like it, 2007 was the best year ever for the semiconductor equipment and materials industry. Perhaps the lack of fanfare can be attributed to the fact that this record year is the result of strength in both the equipment and materials markets, not supernormal growth of equipment. While the semiconductor materials market has experienced four consecutive record breaking years, semiconductor equipment has yet to reach the high set in 2000. Taken together though, the semiconductor equipment and materials market actually first exceeded the high-water mark set in 2000 in 2006. A consecutive record breaking year for the semiconductor equipment and materials industry comes as good news to an industry that got off to an extremely rough start to the millennium.

Value of Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
(in US$ Billion)

Source: SEMI/WSTS

It is clear that the electronic revolution is here to stay, and as the industry matures, semiconductor manufacturers are becoming less dependent on one "killer application" to drive growth. In essence, consumer electronics are replacing the "killer application" with a "killer market", which can lead to more stable, sustained growth. While it is fortuitous that chips are finding their way into more and more applications, given consumers' high price sensitivity, more price pressure is being exerted upon chip manufacturers and their suppliers.

Semiconductor Regional Trends

Given this intense downward price pressure, semiconductor manufacturers are adding capacity at a much faster rate to regions outside of North America, Japan and Europe. Total silicon-based fabrication capacity data indicates that Japan had the largest installed fabrication capacity in 2000, followed by the U.S., Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Rest of World (ROW), and China. ROW includes Asia-Pacific regions not already captured such as Singapore and Malaysia. By 2007 the manufacturing landscape changed dramatically. While Japan still produces the most wafer starts, South Korea capacity has exceeded North America's and Taiwan caught up to North America in terms of capacity. China now has more capacity than ROW. It is important to note that while Japan, North America, and Europe have lost market share, capacity in those regions has actually increased 17% to 25%.

Production Fab Capacity Trends

Theoretical 200 mm equivalent wafer starts per month

Source: Strategic Marketing Associates, January World Fab Watch 2001, SEMI Fab Capacity Report January, 2008

Semiconductor Equipment

Worldwide sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment totaled $42.77 billion in 2007, representing a year-over-year increase of 6%. Equipment spending in 2007 posted sales just under $5 billion shy of the high of $47.68 billion reached in 2000 but still represents the second highest level recorded for semiconductor equipment manufacturers.

For the first time, the Taiwan market region spent more semiconductor equipment than any other region, growing 46% over 2006 to reach US$10.65 billion. Japan claimed the number two spot with $9.31 billion in equipment sales. South Korea ascended to third place reaching $7.35 billion, passing North America at $6.55 billion. China continued with its expansion by growing 26% over 2006, reaching $2.92 billion. Spending for Europe, China, Rest of World, were in the $3 billion range.

Semiconductor Equipment Markets - Regional Trends

Source: SEMI/SEAJ

If equipment spending trends in 2000 to 2007 are compared, South Korea represents much more (up 9%) of the total market in 2007 versus 2000, while N. America is much lower (down 12%). Europe accounts for about 7% less in 2007 than it did in 2000, while Japan accounts for 3% more of the market than it did in 2000. Taiwan gained about 5% of market share in 2007 compared to 2000. The ROW region, including China, now accounts for 14% of the market compared to 12% in 2000.

Semiconductor Materials

The global semiconductor materials market grew 14% in 2007 reaching $42.4 billion - resulting in the fourth record breaking year for the semiconductor materials market.

On a regional basis, because Japan has the largest installed fabrication base and a significant packaging base--focused on advanced packaging technologies, it consumes the most materials on a revenue basis. Not surprisingly China grew 37% last year; this is the result of renewed aggressive fab and assembly facility investment. One interesting fact to note is that because of the substantial packaging base in China, approximately 61% of its materials consumption is for packaging materials. However, as additional fab facilities come online, it is expected that materials consumption in China will shift to wafer possessing materials.

2007 Regional Materials Market

$42.39 Billion

Source: SEMI March 2008

The semiconductor materials market in relation to semiconductor equipment is currently roughly equivalent. However, this is not always the case, in times where the equipment industry outpaces growth of the materials industry, there tends to be a correction the following year or two. In 1995, we saw the 200 mm ramp which caused the equipment market to outpace growth of the materials market. That growth came at a price with the slowdown in 1998.

Total Equipment Revenue vs. Total Material Revenue Trends

Rose Associates, SEMI, SEMI/SEAJ

After 1998, the equipment market recovered and in fact set its all time high in 2000 only to experience its worse downturn ever in 2001. This image also clearly illustrates that the overall semiconductor equipment and materials industry strength in 2000 was the result of super-normal growth of the equipment sector - not materials. The materials market slowly regained its momentum and finally exceeded 2000 levels in 2004. However, in 2004 the equipment industry's growth outpaced the materials market as device manufacturers were investing in 300 mm. Again, this excess growth came at a price; the equipment market declined 11% in 2005, while the materials market experienced a successive record-breaking year. In 2006 materials and equipment markets grew in tandem, about 20% each, resulting in a third record-breaking year in a row for materials and the second strongest year ever for equipment, second only to 2000. This re-alignment of growth can be seen as evidence that the industry is maturing as it is capable of reining in its capital expenditures to be better aligned with underlying demand.

Conclusion

There is a significant regional shift occurring in the semiconductor industry, which is being accelerated by the growing consumer electronic market. And while the industry is in a constant challenge to provide more processing power for less money, a whole new array of end markets are now available, which frees the industry from relying on one killer application. As a result the semiconductor industry has had six consecutive years of sustained growth and equipment and materials suppliers are finally reaping the benefits. The semiconductor equipment and materials industry grew 9% in 2007, after growing 22% in 2006, making 2007 the best year ever for the equipment and materials industry. While 2007 did not have the exuberant feel of 2000, there is something to be said for steady, sustained growth of a more mature industry.

IBM's alliance is ready to use a chipmaking material called "high-k/metal gate" for performance and power savings advantages in next-generation products. IBM Vice President Gary Patton said the "gate-first" approach will maintain a competitive advantage with a long-sought improvement for the transistor.

IBM and its chip-alliance partners say a breakthrough chipmaking material known as "high-k/metal gate" has been thoroughly tested and is ready to roll on devices manufactured at IBM's 300-millimeter semiconductor plant in East Fishkill, N.Y. Chip designers will be able to use the new technology to realize performance and power savings advantages in their next-generation products, the partners said.

"Demonstrating this caliber of result in a practical environment means that as our collective client base moves to next-generation technology by using the 'gate-first' approach, they will continue to maintain a significant competitive advantage," said IBM Vice President Gary Patton.

Small, Fast and Efficient

Executives from IBM, Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, Freescale, Infineon Technologies, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics and Toshiba believe that high-k/metal gate technology will be able to serve as the basis for achieving a long-sought improvement to the transistor. Foundry support for customers implementing chips featuring 32-nanometer circuitry will be made available in the third quarter, they said.

However, Gartner Vice President Dean Freeman notes that the switch to high-k/metal gate technology did not come easy. "The integration of the high-k dielectrics with silicon has been challenging, to say the least," he said, adding that technical issues led device manufacturers "to push out high-k materials just one more generation, until now."

The new material's use in a critical portion of the transistor -- where the primary on/off switching is controlled -- will enable chips to become smaller, faster and more power-efficient than previously thought possible. And industry observers say the new technology could soon move into many consumer devices, especially those with critical power-consumption and battery-life requirements.

"The alliance enabling sampling at this early date will allow companies to begin producing devices in 2009 for commercial consumption, which is about the same time Intel will be moving into production with 32nm," Freeman said.

The Biggest Challenge

The chip changes taking place in high-k dielectrics and metal gates are just the first of many technical innovations that Freeman expects, with the next major changes likely to occur at 22nm.

"Logic transistors will likely move to multi-gate technology at this time" and it is possible "we will see the same transition" for memory, Freeman said. "NAND flash will likely have a change to the tunnel dielectric and the floating gate technology at 22nm, possibly earlier, he added.

One of the biggest challenges, Freeman said, is that some of these solutions may last only a generation before a new material or structure is required to take the industry to the next level. "Each new transistor generation from 45nm on down will need a redesign," Freeman said. "It is possible to use the current hi-k materials through 32nm, and they could work at 22nm, but to do so the cell will need to be redesigned, so in this case a multi-gate structure."

The current high-k materials will eventually have a limitation, Freeman noted. "The question that the industry doesn't have an answer for yet is when," Freeman said.

The ultimate goal, Freeman explained, is to move electrons as fast as possible using the least amount of power, while generating the least amount of heat. "That is what the researchers are focusing on for the next generation of transistors," he said.

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Shares in KLA Tencor Corp., one of the world's largest makers of microchip testing equipment, rose Wednesday after a Citigroup analyst said recent competition fears are overplayed.

Citibank's Timothy M. Arcuri was reacting to news overnight that competitor Applied Materials Inc. released a new chip testing product.

However, he said it was a "serious leap of faith" to assume that Applied can break into one of the most technically demanding markets in semiconductor manufacturing.

He advised investors to buy on the stock's weakness and warned that "this ship is setting sail".

KLA shares rose $3.37 or 8.4 percent to $43.24 in afternoon trading. They have traded in the last year between $35.02 and $62.67.

Arcuri maintained his "Buy" rating and $56 price target, which represents a 30 percent increase on KLA's trading price of $43.21.

Even with Wednesday's price spike, the shares were still trading 10.3 percent below the $48.16 they commanded at the start of the year.

The equity markets end a strong week fueled by earnings, and the Dow breaks through February highs and a key resistance level Google [GOOG 539.41 89.87 (+19.99%) alone, gaining close to 20% today, was responsible for over 3 points of the almost 25 point gain in the S&P 500, and over 24 points of the NASDAQ 100's almost 60 point gain Friday.

Stocks surged on Friday as Internet leader Google and heavy equipment maker Caterpillar showed resilience in the face of a slowing economy with profits that defied Wall Street's modest expectations.

Citigroup also fueled a rally that pushed the Dow to its best week since February as investors took comfort that the No. 1 U.S. bank is taking aggressive steps to resolve credit problems that led to its latest quarterly loss, fueling hopes that the credit crisis is near an end.

All three major indexes ended the week up more than 4 percent.

The week was highlighted by a strong showing from Caterpillar, Google and other companies that generate a large part of their profits overseas. The results helped investors overcome persistent fears about the impact of a devastating credit crisis on business and consumer spending.

Shares of Caterpillar, a manufacturing bellwether, rose more than 8 percent after the company reported stronger-than-expected profits.

In technology, Google shares rose 20 percent to $539.41 on the Nasdaq after the company posted results that quashed fears of a slowdown in online advertising as it said it saw no impact from the weakening U.S. economy.

"What we're seeing in the market today is really a microcosm of what we've seen all week," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist, Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto. "The market is prepared to reward companies that are showing strong earnings."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumped 228.87 points, or 1.81 percent, to end at 12,849.36, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 24.77 points, or 1.81 percent, to 1,390.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> soared 61.14 points, or 2.61 percent, to 2,402.97.

For the week, the Dow and the S&P 500 each ended up 4.3 percent, while Nasdaq added 4.9 percent.

Large multinational companies benefited from the weak dollar either through the conversion of overseas profits into greenbacks or because they are more competitive against foreign rivals.

Robust international sales also boosted the earnings of manufacturer Honeywell International , whose shares rose 6.2 percent to $60.99. Caterpillar's shares rose 8.5 percent to $85.28.

Google's solid quarterly results, the first time that its international revenue outstripped U.S. revenue, also lifted other Internet-based shares.

Analysts at six brokerages, including Merrill Lynch and Oppenheimer, raised their share price targets on Google.

Other Internet-based shares trading higher included Chinese search engine Baidu.com , up 10.1 percent to $341, and online retailer Amazon.com , up 8.2 percent to $80.10.

Financial shares also had a strong day, with an index of S&P financial companies <.GSPF> gaining 1.8 percent, helped by Citigroup, which rose 4.5 percent to $25.11.

Citi posted a $5.11 billion quarterly loss and said it will cut another 9,000 jobs after suffering billions of dollars of write-downs tied to mortgages, other debt and a slumping economy. But investors welcomed its efforts to drive down expenses and restore luster to a stock that has fallen by about half over the last year.

Trading was moderate on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.48 billion shares changing hands, falling short of last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.9 billion. On Nasdaq about 2.19 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks by a ratio of about 3 to 1 on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

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SunPower falls; analyst says outlook language may be culprit

Shares of SunPower Corp., which have gained about 80 percent in a month, fell Thursday even as it offered a strong first-quarter report and said it expects similar prospects for the foreseeable future.

In a research note issued before regular trading began, Cowen and Co. analyst Rob Stone, said some investors may react negatively to a slight change in the wording of its 2009 revenue forecast. The company said it expects 2009 revenue to grow "at least 40 percent." It previously predicted 2009 sales growth of "40 percent to 50 percent."

Since March 17 shares have soared from $54.95 to $99.58 at Tuesday's regular market close.

Stone noted that the "40 percent minimum is off a higher 2008 base so they are in fact guiding higher. And they also increased their production target." He rates the shares "Outperform" and suggested that investors buy on weakness.

Calyon Securities analyst Kelly Dougherty, in a client note, said she needed clarification about margins in the company' systems business and hoped to get more insight during the company's early afternoon conference call.

She has a "Buy" rating on the stock and a $120 price target.

Trending123.com rates SPWR a strong buy with a target of 200+

SanDisk Corp (SNDK) the world's top maker of data-storage memory chips, issued a strong sales forecast on Thursday and said it expected memory price declines to moderate in the current quarter.

Shares of SanDisk, down about 22 percent this year, rose 4.2 percent on the news, which came after the company reported higher-than-expected first-quarter revenue, citing strong demand for memory chips used in consumer gadgets.

SanDisk said sales were helped by its international business, by demand for its Sansa music players, and by mobile-phone and satellite-navigation device buyers.

But its average price per megabyte sold fell 61 percent from the year-ago quarter, and 29 percent from the fourth quarter, as competitors liquidated inventories "at prices that were at or below cost," said SanDisk CEO Eli Harari.

Harari said the company planned to expand in markets that are less vulnerable to sharp price declines, such as corporate data storage, where he said premiums could be significant.

"Conditions should improve gradually as the low-price inventory is sold through the channels," he told analysts on a conference call.

Harari said SanDisk expects price declines to moderate in the current quarter, but cautioned that product profit margins would remain under pressure as lower-cost chips would not be released until the second half.

SanDisk said the average capacity of its retail flash memory cards increased 71 percent from a year earlier and 16 percent from the fourth quarter.

"It was encouraging that we saw a good density increase, and the fact that we saw pricing rebounding was also an encouraging sign," said American Technology Research analyst Doug Freedman, who has a "buy" rating on SanDisk.

First-quarter net income was $17.9 million, or 8 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $575,000 a year earlier when SanDisk had more than $20 million in acquisition-related costs.

Revenue rose 8 percent to $850 million, exceeding analysts' average forecast of $812.2 million, according to Reuters Estimates. In January, SanDisk had projected first-quarter revenue of $775 million to $875 million.

Excluding acquisition-related expenses and other items, SanDisk earned 21 cents per share, less than average projection of 27 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

The company forecast second quarter revenue in a range of $875 million to $950 million. The midpoint of the range, $912.5 million, was higher than the average Wall Street forecast of $903.5 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

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The Dow Jones Transportation Index rallied Friday to an 8-month high, and produced a technical event referred to as a 'golden cross' in the process.

The Dow transports were last up 112 points, or 2.2%, at 5,099, and have now gained 22% over the past 3 months. The index hit a high of 5,096.82, the highest level seen since Aug. 8.

Separately, the index's 50-day simple moving average came in at 4,751.70 on Friday, crossing above the 200-day simple moving average, which came in at 4,749.80.

Moving averages are used to smooth out daily swings in order to view underlying trends. When a shorter-term moving average, such as the widely viewed 50-day SMA, crosses above a long-term moving average, such as the more-closely watched 200-day SMA, many chart watchers see it as a sign that short- and long-term trends are moving in unison.

The last time the 2 moving averages crossed each other was on Sept. 20, when the 50-day fell below the 200-day. The index closed at 4,814.39 on that day, and fell another 16% before bottoming out at 4,032.88 in intraday trading on Jan. 22.

The last upside crossover was Nov. 15, 2006, when it closed at 4,830.43. The index rose another 14% before topping at an all-time high of 5,487.05 in intraday trading on July 18, 2007.

Message Board Post

JL, thank you for the option plays and for giving them a place on the website! The continual work you put into improving the website via tutorials; etc. is much appreciated as is all the time you put into the daily up-dates.

Months ago I thought this was the best website I had ever seen for trading, educational materials, tools and the abilility to not only learn from you but other trader/subscribers from all walks of life and areas around the globe.

JL, with your leadership it just gets better and better. This is the best site and it draws the best who are willing to share with all of us! It is truly earning while learning.

Linda

1. The SP500 currently has a current Price/Earnings ratio of 14 and a forward P/E of 16.7. The SP500 has never, ever, topped with a P/E at these low levels.

2. A Bear market is defined as any market in which prices exhibit a declining trend and fall by 20% or more from peak to trough. The Market is not and the S&P 500 is not, by definition, in a Bear Market. The SP500, from peak to trough, has not declined into an "official bear market."

3. Historically, high short interest, which indicates investor pessimism in the market, has always marked transitions from down markets to up markets. The highest short interest ever was reported today by The NYSE Group, with over 14.9 billion shares short as as of February 29, 2008.

4. The American Stock Exchange® (Amex®) member and non-member organizations, also reported the highest short interest ever, with short interest, as of the February 29, 2008 settlement date of 1.25 Billion shares. One year prior, the short interest totaled only 750.6 million shares.

5. Nasdaq reported its second highest short interest ever at 9.25 billion shares as of February 29, 2008. The highest ever short interest in the history of the NASDAQ was August 15th 2007 at the major market low leading into the massive 6 week rally that ended with market highs at the end of October, 2007.

6. The Advisors' Sentiment Report is a survey that has been widely adopted by the investment community as a contrarian indicator and has been followed closely by the financial media. Each week the service Investors Intelligence surveys some 140 financial newsletter writers to determine whether they are leaning bullish or bearish in their opinions to subscribers and compiles the data to arrive at a weekly percentage of bulls vs. bears. Extremes in either direction are signals of reversal of the market's current trend. The last time the percentage of Bears was this high and the percentage of bulls this low was the bottom in 2002. Since its inception in 1963, this report has had a consistently good record for predicting the major market turning points.

7. The Bullish Percent index measures market breadth by dividing the number of stocks with a point and Figure buy signal by the percentage of stocks on an index (NYSE or NSDAQ, for eg.). The lower the Bullish Percent is, the fewer stocks that are giving buy signals and a general buy signal is when the index is below 30%. It is a very accurate indicator of major market bottoms. When the market plunged on January 22, it hit 15.92 on the NYSE and 16.92 on NASDAQ. The last time it hit anywhere near that low was in the first week of September, 1998, which was the bottom heading into the NASDAQ 5000+ rally. Even when the market plunged last Friday to within shouting distance of the SP500 uptrend line, the NYSE Bullish Percent index remained up at 29.22%, far above its January 22 low of 15.92%

8. A market bottom is typically marked by a dramatically greater number of new lows than new highs. The $NAHL (NASDAQ new highs/new lows) bottomed below -900 on January 22nd . The last time that low was approached was in 1998, leading to the historic rally to NASDAQ 5,000+. Even on Friday's big dip, the ratio only went to -225, substantially above the low of January 22.

9. Not surprisingly, another market breadth indicator, the $NALOW, (Nasdaq New Lows) hit record highs, above 900, on January 22, the only other time they reached those levels being in 1998, prior to the NASDAQ 5000+ rally. Last Friday, when indexes took a big hit, the indicator high was only 239.

10. Another typical bottom marker is a, "A dramatic spike in volume on the exchanges," at the market inflexion point. On January 22, 2008, every exchange and index recorded its highest volume ever, in the history of the stock market.

11. The $SPXA200 is an indicator showing S& P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average. It wasn't created until after the NASDAQ 5000+ rally, but, on January 22, it bottomed at 74, the lowest level since March 12, 2003, the date the S&P bottomed out and started a massive 5 year rally.

12. Since the early 1980's mutual funds have become an increasingly influential component of the investment arena. Professional money managers' level of confidence in the market may be measured by their percentage of assets held as cash. Cash equivalent assets also represent potential buying power. Major market bottoms are often formed when cash levels are high and confidence is low. Conversely, low cash levels can be a warning of diminishing buying power at market highs. Currently, Mutual Funds are reporting excessively high cash levels.

13. The investor sentiment channel created from the Equity Put/Call ratio is another significant contrarian indicator which typically, at a market bottom, gives strong Bearish signal. The ratio reflects options traded by, primarily, non professional and non institutional investors. The sentiment expressed by these ratios is significant because it reflects the leanings of the general community of investors and speculators, rather than the sentiment of institutions and professionals. Channel values of .70 and .50 are regarded as extremes of Bearish and Bullish sentiment, respectively. In 2008 this value has closed over 1.00 (a measure of investor fear) and has closed over 1.00 more times than it has closed under by a wide margin. In fact on March 14th of 2008 the $ CPCE closed at its highest levels EVER in the history of this index.

14. The SP500 is following a 30 year uptrend line that has NEVER, been broken and it presently supporting the SP500 from descending into a Bear market. Since January 22, 2008, it has, twice, approached the trend line. In neither case did it cross. In both cases, Mr. Bernanke, Federal Reserve Board Chairman, took decisive action to ensure that the line held. He will continue to do so until, at least, the November elections. Last Friday, for the third time, the SP500 neared the uptrend line. Result? Massive rally off the lows. Again!

15. Corporate share buy-backs, predominantly, but by no means exclusively, by Tech sector companies, are at all time highs. Cash rich, profitable companies are doing this. This is a significant indicator that corporate CEOs and their Boards do NOT anticipate recession and, rather than squirreling cash away for hard times ahead, are spending it to generate more shareholder and more corporate value. (QCOM, CSCO, almost any chip stock)

16. At the same time, these companies, in conjunction with share buy-back programs, are increasing R & D spending. R&D is one of the first budget victims of recession. CEO's (Cisco, VSEA, INTEL for eg.) increasing it heading into a recession? Extremely unlikely. CEO John Chambers says "CSCO will continue to be aggressive in acquisitions."

17. Many of these same companies are also actively pursuing and completing merger and acquisition deals. Not only that, but some of the deals being offered are for large companies and for hefty premiums (eg Microsoft/Yahoo;CELG/Pharmion). Typically, mergers and acquisitions dry up when companies anticipate a recession, as CEOs look for ways to streamline and dump debt. (eg. the lack of M&A in the sub-prime effected Financial field from mid-summer last year until recent bottom scraping activity such as BoA's recent acquisition of Countrywide). The active pursuit of M&A by many companies in the Tech sector is a dead give-away that their CEOs do NOT anticipate a recession and do not see evidence of it in their business orders.

18. Analysts track major companies and make predictions on how well a company is going to do in the next quarter, or year. Currently, most analysts are lowering such predictions, in the expectation of a declining economy and market. Companies make similar predictions, called guidance, on how they think they will do in upcoming quarters or years. In sharp contrast to the analysts, many, if not most companies are maintaining and even raising guidance. Examples: Ciena raised guidance to 27% annual growth this year. CROX expects net earnings per share for 2008 to increase from $2.00/share in 2007 to $2.70 per share, a 35% increase in net profit. .MCHP (Microchip Technology) raised sales guidance to up to 4% growth from previous forecast of 2 to 4 % decline. NCR, which, in January raised 2007 year end earnings estimates from 1.20 - 1.25 up to 1.35 - 1.40, "expects full-year 2008 earnings from continuing operations to be in the range of $1.48 to $1.55 per share and year-over-year revenue growth from continuing operations to be in the range of 3 to 5 percent." (SEC/edgar filing). Caterpillar (CAT) Issued strong guidance with profit growth expectation for 2008 and 2009 and raising guidance even more for 2010. (And RSTI, etc.) These are not "defensive, recession proof" stocks. They are consumer spending driven and, in many cases, high beta stocks (High beta will fall more in a market downturn than lower beta stocks). Either the market (and the economy) is going up or a lot of major players are dead wrong.

19. In a declining Market/economy, the expectation is that consumers will cut back spending on almost everything, up to and including essentials. Sales figures and expectations are not supporting this. Research in Motion (RIMM) recently announced it expects to sell 15% to 20% more units than previously predicted. "No slowdown. RIMM reads the same newspapers & watches the same TV as everyone else but has seen absolutely no signs of a slowdown in business;"

20. On the same note, AAPL expects to hit its sales target of 10 million iphones this year, despite the predictions and fears of analysts. Are RIMM and Steve Jobs "out to lunch" expecting robust sales with the Market heading down and a recession coming? Or do they see a bit more clearly than CNBC?

21. The authorization, by corporate CEOs and their boards, of massive share buy backs and major Acquisition expenditures in the face of widespread pessimism in about the economy, shows a strong belief in the strength of the Market. However, the expenditure of personal capital to back that belief shows a quantum leap in commitment level. Purchases of company shares by insiders have reached record levels. Several recent examples of this are the purchases by the Chairman/CEO of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt, who spent over 2 million dollars of his own money last week, purchasing 62,000 shares of his company. Michael Marks, a director of Crocs, last week spent about 5 million dollars, personally purchasing 250,000 CROX shares. Corporate leaders are making personal, multimillion dollar commitments to their belief that the market is not going down.

22. One of the most respected and influential corporate leaders in America, CSCO CEO, John Chambers, who has been notably conservative in his corporate and economic forecasts, announced, as of this month, that he is more confident (than previously) in the company's growth target of 12%to 17% and that bumps in the US economy will be "Short lived" and "Shallow."

23. In a down market and during recessionary times, the broad spectrum of investors becomes risk averse. Defensive stocks, Pharmaceuticals for example, strengthen. High beta (higher risk) stocks suffer more than the general market as money is withdrawn and put into sectors perceived as being "low risk." In general, NASDAQ is composed of higher beta (high risk) stocks. Small Cap stocks are seen as being riskier than Large Cap stocks. The Dow and the S&P500, which contain the majority of the Large Cap "Blue Chip," low beta stocks are perceived as being safer, and being the best place to invest money in a down market/recession.

24. The reverse of this is also true. Investors become less risk averse if they perceive a Bull market approaching or happening and move money from low beta Large Caps into the more profitable, (in an up market) high beta stocks in NASDAQ and among Small Caps.

25. As a result of this, Large Caps ($OEX) outperform both the Small Caps ($NDX) and NASDAQ ($NDX) in a recession/down market. NASDAQ and Small Caps, outperform Large Caps heading into and during a Bull Market. In mid-November, as the brutal correction started, the Large Caps began outperforming the Small Caps and continued to do so until about January 25. Since then, up to and including last Friday, Small Caps have outperformed the Large Caps. This indicates major players do not think the market is going down and believe there's a future in higher beta stocks.

26. NASDAQ ($NDX), which underperformed the Large Caps from the beginning of 2007 until July, began substantially outperforming the Large Caps in late August and continued to do so until the beginning of November. Since the correction started, the $OEX (Large Caps) consistently outperformed the $NDX until the beginning of March. Since then and including last Friday, NASDAQ has outperformed the $OEX every day. This indicates a flow of money out of risk averse low beta Large Caps into high beta, potentially high profit, stocks. In other words, investor's, despite the volatility of this market, are stepping back up and assuming more risk, a behavior not seen in Bear Markets.

27. The Ratio Chart of the higher beta NASDAQ "Power Shares", the QQQQ's plotted against the S&P 500 Large Caps (the SPY), has been in a Bullish Falling wedge since the brutal correction began in November. On this chart, a falling wedge is formed when the S&P consistently outperforms the QQQQs. A breakout to the upside occurs when the QQQQ's begin consistently outperforming the S&P500. When the breakout from a similar falling wedge occurred last August it led to the parabolic 6 week rally that topped October 31. Another breakout is occurring right now.

28. Historically, each time the Federal Reserve Board has slashed interest rates as drastically as Mr. Bernanke has recently done, the Dow and the SP500 have followed with massive rallies.

29. The "Inverted Yield Curve," tends to predict recessions. The Yield Curve is produced by graphing the length of time to maturity of U.S. Treasury bills vs. their interest rates and the Curve typically slopes down. This means that the longer the term to maturity, the greater the yield (interest rate). When this relationship becomes inverted, that is, short term rates are higher than long term rates, it is called an "Inverted Yield Curve." a recession often follows. This curve was, in fact, recently inverted (as it was for a short time in 2006), but has once again reversed to a positive yield curve. In short, the possibility of a recession is retreating.

30. Key Point. The Market, the US economy, and a good part of the world economy is driven by the US Consumer. What has the consumer been doing while Bears try to drive the market down and "Market Experts" are at record levels of pessimissm? One way of looking at this is comparing companies sensitive to consumer spending with the S&P500, which has come under such severe pressure from Bears since January.

31. Companies that do well when the economy is experiencing good times are called cyclical stocks. Industries that fall under this group include travel and leisure companies, airlines, consumer electronics firms and jewelry makers. During an economic expansion one should invest in cyclical stocks. If the economy is contracting and we are heading into a Bear Market, cyclical sectors should be tanking. That is not happening. The Ratio Chart of the Cyclical Index ($CYC) to the SP500 (SPY) shows the cyclical consistently massively outperforming the S&P500 since January 10. The consumer continues to spend money on frills, like travel and jewelry, in the midst of all the pessimism.

32. A broader measure of consumer spending is the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index ($CMR) which includes such companies as Procter & Gamble, Disney, Wal-Mart, Colgate-Palmolive and General Mills. The Ratio Chart of the $CMR to the SP500 (SPY) shows the cyclical consistently outperforming the S&P500 since November. The driving force behind the Markets, the consumer, continues to spend, like many CEOs, in the midst of all the pessimism.

33. One of the first things to go downhill in a recession are infrastructure stocks. In the year 2000, when the $SPY topped, Transportation ($TRAN), preceded it in the downturn. When the recent market topped at the end of October, Transportation had started heading down in August and continued to follow the correction down. Since January 9, $TRAN has massively outperformed SPY, with individual stocks within the sector, such as CSX and JBHT hitting all time highs. This has never happened to the Bear sensitive $TRAN heading into any previous Bear market. The conclusion? It's extremely unlikley we're heading into a Bear.

34. The Market is only place that institutions, major players and individuals can invest with any expectation of a reasonable return on investment. With interest rates down, real estate slumping, and financial instruments such as Treasury bills yielding very low returns, only the market offers a realistic possibility of capital appreciation. This is another reason the Federal Reserve Board will likely not permit the S&P to break its uptrend line even if it flirts around that area for a day or two.

Let's Recap How We Have Done---30 Minute Voice Chart Update

Chart Pattern Tutorials

Implication

An Ascending Continuation Triangle is considered a bullish signal. It indicates a possible continuation of the current uptrend.

Description

An Ascending Continuation Triangle shows two converging trendlines. The lower trendline is rising and the upper trendline is horizontal.

This pattern occurs because the lows are moving increasingly higher but the highs are maintaining a constant price level.

The pattern will have two highs and two lows, all touching the trendlines. This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the triangle formation to close above the upper trendline.

Volume is an important factor to consider. Typically, volume follows a reliable pattern: volume should diminish as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range of highs and lows. However, when breakout occurs, there should be a noticeable increase in volume. If this volume picture is not clear, investors should be cautious about decisions based on this Triangle.

Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristics about this pattern.

Occurrence of a Breakout

Technical analysts pay close attention to how long the Triangle takes to develop to its apex. The general rule is that prices should break out - clearly penetrate one of the trendlines - somewhere between three-quarters and two-thirds of the horizontal width of the formation. The break out, in other words, should occur well before the pattern reaches the apex of the Triangle. The closer the breakout occurs to the apex the less reliable the formation.

Duration of the Triangle

The Triangle is a relatively short-term pattern. It may take between one and three months to form.

Shape of Triangle

The horizontal top trendline need not be completely horizontal but it should be close to horizontal.

Volume

Investors should see volume decreasing as the pattern progresses toward the apex of the Triangle. At breakout, however, there should be a noticeable increase in volume.

Trading Considerations

Duration of the Pattern

Consider the duration of the pattern and its relationship to your trading time horizons. The duration of the pattern is considered to be an indicator of the duration of the influence of this pattern. The longer the pattern the longer it will take for the price to move to the target price. The shorter the pattern the sooner the price move. If you are considering a short-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a short duration. If you are considering a longer-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a longer duration.

Target Price

The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful. However you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade. Also, check that the target price has not already been achieved.

Inbound Trend

The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

Criteria that Supports

Support and Resistance

Look for a region of support at the lowest low and a line of resistance at the top of the Triangle.

Moving Average

Compare prices to the 200 day Moving Average. When prices are close to or touch the 200 day Moving Average this signal is considered stronger.

Volume

A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.

Criteria that Refutes

No Volume Spike on Breakout

The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Short Inbound Trend

An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Underlying Behavior

This pattern with its increasingly higher lows and constant highs indicates that buyers are more aggressive than sellers. The pattern forms because of a supply of shares is available at a fixed price. When the supply depletes, the shares quickly breakout from the top trendline and move higher.

2 Examples

CEO

CNOOC Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products primarily in China. The company has four oil production areas offshore China, which include Bohai Bay, western south China Sea, eastern south China Sea, and east China Sea, as well as offshore oil facilities in Indonesia and certain upstream assets in regions, such as Africa and Australia. As of December 31, 2007, it had net proved reserves of approximately 2.6 billion barrels-of-oil equivalent. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. CNOOC Limited is a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

PTR

PetroChina Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in petroleum and natural gas related activities in the People's Republic of China. It operates in four segments: Exploration and Production, Refining and Marketing, Chemicals and Marketing, and Natural Gas and Pipeline. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The Refining and Marketing segment involves in refining, transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil and petroleum products. The Chemicals and Marketing segment produces and sells basic petrochemical products, derivative petrochemical products, and other chemical products. The Natural Gas and Pipeline segment transmits natural gas, crude oil, and refined products, as well as sells natural gas. As of December 31, 2006, the company had estimated proved reserves of approximately 11,618 million barrels of crude oil and approximately 53,469.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, as well as operated 18,207 units of service stations. It owned and operated 20,590 kilometers of natural gas pipeline networks, 9,620 kilometers of crude oil pipeline, and 2,413 kilometers of pipeline for refined products. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Email From Subscriber

Thank You so much for the latest update with the Fib numbers and the Q's. I like seeing this, it gives me extremely useful data and another viewpoint as I attempt to do some self directed trades in and out of the Q's options using some of Cap's techniques, and also some "gut feelings" based on the charts. Your analysis and education on Elliot Wave and Fibonacci has been very enlightening and helpful in my trades. I have been happy to be a subscriber and plan on being in the trading room when my flight schedule allows.

Looking forward to the rest of spring and summer,

Fly Mojo

Chip maker Broadcom Corp (BRCM) beat its quarterly revenue target on Tuesday, citing strength in its wireline business segments, enterprise and broadband, and it forecast revenue growth in this quarter.

Broadcom, which makes chips for mobile phones, network equipment and consumer devices said revenue rose 14.5 percent to $1.03 billion.

This compared with its forecast for first-quarter revenue of between $975 million and $1.005 billion and average analyst estimates for $992.16 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

It also forecast second quarter revenue in a range of $1.075 billion to $1.125 billion, citing strength in all of its business segments. This was above average analyst estimates for $1.027 billion in revenue, according to Reuters Estimates.

Charter Equity Research analyst John Dryden said Broadcom's stronger than expected revenue was a surprise, especially as it cited strength in enterprise network equipment as this is often seen as a worrying segment in times of economic uncertainty.

"Broadcom is not seeing a slowdown in the overall economy as far as it impacts their business, which is surprising as the tone of economic uncertainty hasn't improved in the last three months," said Dryden.

Broadcom said its profit rose to $74.3 million, or 14 cents per share, from $61 million, or 10 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding unusual items the company's earnings per share would have been 39 cents compared with average analyst estimates of 28 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

The company cited strong chip demand for satellite television set-top boxes and high-speed Internet modems, as well as for chips used in network equipment used by enterprises.

Broadcom Chief Executive Scott McGregor said that, while he was cautious on the macroeconomic front, the company was not seeing signs of a weak economy hurting its business.

"We are not currently seeing any broad-based weakness," McGregor said in a conference call with analysts.

Broadcom's business segments include enterprise and broadband, which it said were both stronger than expected in the quarter, as well as wireless, including cell phone chips.

McGregor said in a statement that its second-quarter outlook represents solid revenue growth in each of its three major target markets.

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Message Board Post

JL, thank you for the option plays and for giving them a place on the website! The continual work you put into improving the website via tutorials; etc. is much appreciated as is all the time you put into the daily up-dates.

Months ago I thought this was the best website I had ever seen for trading, educational materials, tools and the abilility to not only learn from you but other trader/subscribers from all walks or life and areas around the globe.

JL, with your leadership it just gets better and better. This is the best site and it draws the best who are willing to share with all of us! It is truly earning while learning.

Lana

(BIDU) Baidu.com reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.60 per share, including $0.07 of stock based compensation expenses, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.60; revenues rose 108.4% year/year to $81.9 mln vs the $75.4 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $111-114 mln vs. $100.60 mln consensus. "Instrumental to our growth were the ceaseless efforts of our sales force and customer service teams who continued to deliver strong results despite a long Chinese New Year holiday and severe snow storms across large parts of China. In addition, a larger customer base contributed to strong organic and Baidu Union growth." During the first quarter Baidu launched the public testing of Baidu Hi, an instant messaging platform complementing Baidu's suite of other already popular products such as Baidu Knows, Baidu Post Bar and Baidu Space. Initial results indicate a positive response to the new product.

Message Board Post

John,

I have been a member here since last November. Even though I joined at almost exactly the time the market started to tank, I have been able to survive (mentally) based on your continuing guidance and enthusiasm. Frankly, I don't know how you can continue to deal with all of us "inmates." In any case, thank you for the great job you do and your continuing support, which is even more critical in correcting markets.

Best regards,

Racmo

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Ok so looking at the performance of my top chip stocks this month I still fail to see the reason for all the hate? What am I missing because it's not rapidly rising prices!!

KLA-Tencor beats by $0.04, beats on revs (KLAC) 44.75 +1.64 : Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.67 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.63; year/year revenue guidance $602 mln vs the $586 mln consensus.

LRCX Upgraded today

NVEC has yet to report

USD ETF Double Leverage

VSEA increased it'share buy back today

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Trading Wisdom

There is never a shortage of people who try to tell us how to live our lives, make more money, find the perfect relationship, or become an overnight success. Just read your e-mail or listen to the media. Everyone has a solution for achieving the abundant, perfect, stress-free life that we seek.

Financial experts flood the airways with a constant barrage of information to keep our eyes and ears focused on the screen and what they are trying to sell. We drown in advice from self-help gurus and people who know more about what is good for us than we do ourselves.

They are selling, and we are buying. What are they selling? In a word, outcome. They are selling hope for more money, a perfect body, less stress and abundance. Everyone has answers that will instantly change our life. Hope sells, and people are paying billions of dollars a year for it.

Although there is nothing intrinsically bad about the concepts of hope and outcome, there is also not much good, either. The one thing that I say to people that causes the most discomfort is, "Abandon attachment to outcome." Before you throw rotten fruit and laugh me out of the building, please allow me to explain the power of abandoning attachment to outcome, in terms of trading.

When you are attached to the outcome of a trade, you step out of the present moment and into the future. You have put your power into the hands of something unknown and out of your control. I see this repeatedly in traders and investors who refuse to short because it is against their principles. They are attached to the outcome of being long, and still look back to years when the markets were climbing steadily.

These people will tell you that it is unpatriotic to short and that shorts can never win because the market "always comes back." These are the same people who are holding on to stocks they have carried since the height of the tech bubble. When asked why they won't let go of them, they tell you that selling would be like losing a trusted friend. They are attached to the outcome, hoping that the stock will be a winner for them if they just hold on to it long enough.

The analogy here is a bad relationship. Every day there is fighting and antagonism and life is far from pleasant. Yet, there are times when things seem better, and this keeps the relationship going-even though both people are, for the most part, miserable. They are attached to the outcome that things will be better-tomorrow. One tomorrow leads to the next and the next, until there are so many that we don't know where the time went or what happened to the wonderful life we had hoped for.

There is nothing more invigorating than to get out of attachment to outcome and into the present. Nowhere is this clearer than in the world of trading. Once you are able to make the transition from the future to the present, everything changes. A quantum shift occurs because you are now living fully in the moment, and you are in control of what you think and do with your stock positions. There is no tomorrow, just today. This is what I have learned about taking personal responsibility for every moment of my life-both in and out of the markets.

I understand the remorse in selling too soon. I know the regret of buying too late. I also know that I am fully present in the moment with the markets and my positions in the markets. I have been there, and I have experienced every emotion that you are feeling. Like a bad relationship-if it isn't working, I get out quickly. Moreover, I don't get involved when I don't see the signals. When I stopped fighting the present, for the first time, I began to trade profitably.

A quantum shift in reality occurred because I was no longer in the realm of attachment to outcome. I was 100% in the moment of the trade. I let go of attachment to outcome and allowed myself to be truly present in that perfect moment.

This change of attitude got me off the slippery slope and into accepting the reality that this moment is really all there is. I stopped resisting and went with the flow.

Suddenly, a newfound joy, passion and indescribable feeling of calm poured over me. Trading and life show up only in the here and now. When I stopped anticipating movement and starting accepting what was happening now, I was able to grasp the full concept that this was not about books, people, places or things. This was about me. I am responsible for what I do in each unique moment. The choices are mine, and I am not attached to anything but the full freedom of the here and now.

I learned to trust myself...to believe in myself...to truly understand what it means to stand with integrity and be completely responsible for my thoughts, feelings and actions. I learned that this moment is the perfect moment, and I am always in it. I have a wish for you: that this be your perfect moment...and this one, and this one, and this one.

Message Board Post

Hello John

I have been a member for at less 2 yrs. The introduction to the NUT HUT pattern ( RST ) was the turning point of my TA training. My understanding of the Elliot Wave has been confirmed throu your updates. The Fib numbers now make sense throu your efforts and updates. The introduction to MARKET INTERNALS is great I was not aware of these. The trading room is the best place I have found where experienced international traders actually try to help less experienced traders. Dr. Janice has been an inspiration to me. I look forward to new tools in the future from you.

Thanks for all the hard work.

Gerald

This week we used "The Call Buying Strategy" that is when the stock is expected to increase in value.

Long Call options are a debit strategy, unlike (Selling) Call Options that are a credit strategy.

Long Call Options offer much more potential for dollar gains then writing (Selling) Call Options where our profits are limited to the premium we received for writing the option.

When we buy a Call Option we buy the right to call out the underline security (Stock) at the strike price value that we chose to buy the call option, however we do not have the obligation, we can simply sell out the call option we bought at any time before expiration date.

When we are planning to buy a Call Option we need to be sure that the Stock (Underline Security) we are looking at is a volatile one and with a Pattern ready to explode up.

Timing is crucial, Call Options can lose value fast if the Stock does not move in a fairly passe, when we write (Sell) Options we do not want volatility, we want then to lose their value with time, because we did receive premium for

their TIME, however when we are buying, we do want stocks that are volatile.

An Option calculator is a must when buying Options, we could be buying at Call Option today for 2.50 on XYZ stock trading at 45.00 to only see in a few days the option trading at 2.00 and the XYZ stock trading at 45.50, this means that we bought an over priced Call Option.

1. Make sure the XYZ Stock is volatile.

2. Make sure you have a pattern that is ready to explode up.

3. Make sure the Option you are looking to buy is not over priced

4. Make sure that the correlation of the Delta and the Pattern target will allow you to at least make 100% return.

5. Make sure that you chose an expiration date with more time then the