Nvidia sees no slowdown, eyes boom in ultra-small PCs

Nvidia Corp (NVDA) the world's top graphics chip maker, said it sees no signs of a consumer slowdown, and expects sales of powerful, but smaller devices that can display high-definition video and games to drive growth.

The U.S. company said that the most powerful chips designed to display graphics on a computer -- once the preserve of gaming enthusiastics -- are increasingly going into smartphones and other mobile Internet devices. Nvidia announced on Sunday a line of new processors, called 'Tegra', for these compact mobile Internet devices.

"Every application needs visual now. People want to load videos on their iPods and download pictures to create scrapbooks," Rob Csonger, Nvidia vice president of corporate marketing, told Reuters in an interview at Computex, the world's second largest computer show.

With consumers feeling the pinch from the subprime crisis, economic slowdown and rising prices, smaller computing devices that can surf the Internet and play complex, graphics-heavy games, are expected to see strong sales.

Intel (INTC) has said it would not be surprised to see sales of what it calls Netbook PCs such as the Eee PC and others top 50 million by 2011.

"Consumers are now demanding visually rich PCs for their applications without spending more money," said Mike Rayfield, general manager of Nvidia's mobile business. Nvidia said it also sees demand for its high-performance graphics products from aerospace, film, energy, science and healthcare sectors.

For example, researchers can run virus simulations for cancer study on specialized, high-performance computers using Nvidia graphics chips.

Shares in Nvidia rose 5 percent to $24.70 on Friday in New York, outpacing a 0.6 percent gain in the Nasdaq.

Since March 1, the semiconductors ($SOX) are up 19.31 %. The Nasdaq 100 and QQQQ's are each up over 16% and the internets ($IIX) are not far behind at 14.39%.

As pessimissm continues to inhibit investor confidence, the market continues the rally that started in mid-March. It has been a broadly based rally, with The Dow, the S&P and Nasdaq, all showing gains. The S&P and the Dow have posted gains of 5.26% and 3.05% respectively, since March 1st, which are significant advances. But this is a tale of two markets. The major markets have, so far, been piggy-backing on the explosive gains in tech.

Meanwhile, the backbone of most major rallies, the financials, have been lagging, with banks ($BKX) showing a 7.55% drop and brokers ($XBD) sagging 7.44% since the rally started.

Message Board Post 06/01/08

Dear Jl,

I continue to grow as a trader here at 123. It is not just following a handful of picks, as so many sites offer that. Your constant education and updates give me the confidence to search out my own set-ups. For those that might be new reading this, it is important for you to understand: The longer you stay, the more JL seems to make sense. This is not because he is saying or doing anything differently. It is because your ears get smarter with every update, your eyes wiser with every pattern lesson.

...and the site just keeps growing and evolving. I am grateful for JL and Hillary and Mac and all those behind the scenes and look forward to Shannon's input.

As primarily an options trader, I have been able to use Jl's picks and the site tools to triple my account in six months, while only placing 20% of my portfolio in play at any given time. That said, when JL throws an option trade out, it is SO EASY TO FOLLOW! My gains have been much stronger with his guidance. I hope the folks at Phillips are paying attention to the response from the membership!

profit are good,

AmandaB

Message Board Post 06/01/08

I have to agree with everything Amanda has said and add to it. Joining T123 was one of the best things i could have done for my trading. JL's picks are not just thrown out there and left alone. The explanations behind the picks, analysis etc are the reason that i have decided to stick around and " earn while i learn ". Not one trader here should ever be satisfied where they are , as far as being a trader. Learn from JL, but, the ultimate goal imo , is to find your style.

Also, thank you to the guys and gals in the chatroom who make it a good teaching atmosphere and who are always eager to help other traders . Has to be the best on the net .

Jax

Semi Market to Hit Bottom by Fourth Quarter of 2008, Strong Rebound in 2009 Says SEMI World Fab Forecast

Biggest Long-term Growth Expected for Taiwan and Southeast Asia

According to the World Fab Forecast report, recently released by SEMI, spending on worldwide fabs equipping is expected to show declines of about 17 percent in 2008, as more companies are forced to postpone fab projects due to global economic uncertainties. In 2009, however, the group expects to see a rebound with double-digit growth of over 12 percent.

Regions reflecting this trend most dramatically include Southeast Asia and Taiwan, who will likely experience declines of 40 percent and 33 percent respectively this year, but are expected to recover in 2009 with significant positive growth of over 50 percent and 80 percent respectively.

In the Americas, fab equipment spending is expected to decline over the next two years, while China and the Europe/Mideast are expected to see growth both years. Spending in Japan and South Korea is projected to remain slow, but should improve from negative double digits in 2008, to negative single digits in 2009.

The biggest three spenders in 2008 for equipping fabs are Samsung, Flash Alliance and Intel. Though most companies are investing in non-US fab opportunities, Samsung is making significant investment into its 300mm megafabs in Austin, Texas, and Intel continues to invest in its Arizona and New Mexico fabs. In 2009, Rexchip, TSMC, UMC, Promos and Hynix are expected to join Samsung, Flash Alliance and Intel as key spenders on fab equipping.

In the regional construction of new fabs, only Southeast Asia and South Korea are expected to show positive growth in 2008. Southeast Asia should see greater than 160 percent growth in spending on fab construction projects, due mainly to IM Flash's plan for a new megafab in Singapore.

After a year of very strong capacity growth in 2007 of about 17 percent, global fab capacity is projected to slow slightly, but is expected to post growth in the high single to low double-digits over the next two years. In addition, the overall capacity of volume fabs for 300mm is expected to surpass 200mm capacity by the third quarter of 2008. Looking forward, capacity for 200mm volume fabs will remain at the same level, while capacity for 300mm volume fabs is expected to grow consistently in the double digits with over 2.5 times less fabs.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast provides high level summaries and graphs; in-depth analyses of capital expenditure, capacity, technology and products, down to the detail of each fab; and forecasts for the next 18 months. These tools are invaluable for understanding how 2009 will look, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology level, and products.

Please visit www.semi.org/fabs for additional information on these reports.

My number one pick in this sector would be NVEC

Introduction

The triangle pattern, also called the "coil," appears in three varieties:

1. symmetrical, 2. ascending, and 3. descending.

Generally, a triangle pattern is considered to be a continuation or consolidation pattern. Sometimes, however, the formation marks a reversal of a trend.

Symmetrical triangles are generally considered neutral, ascending triangles are bullish, and descending triangles are bearish. From a time perspective, triangles are usually considered to be intermediate patterns. Usually, it takes longer than a month to form a triangle. Seldom will a triangle last longer than three months. If a triangle pattern does take longer than three months to complete, Murphy advises that the formation will take on major trend significance.

What does a symmetrical triangle look like?

Converging trendlines of support and resistance gives the triangle pattern its distinctive shape. This occurs, Kahn explains, because "the trading action gets tighter and tighter until the market breaks out with great force." Buyers and sellers find themselves in a period where they are not sure where the market is headed. Their uncertainty is marked by their actions of buying and selling sooner, making the pattern look like an increasingly tight coil moving across the chart.

As the range between the peaks and troughs marking the progression of price narrows, the trendlines meet at the "apex," located at the right of the chart. The "base" of the triangle is the vertical line at the left of the chart which measures the vertical height of the pattern.

To Review The Entire NVEC Update Click Here

Chart Pattern Recognition

When analyzing charts, we look for patterns--that is, objects or shapes that call to mind an image of a similar event in the past. Because patterns repeat, we can use them to determine the probability of a certain outcome.

Technical Analysis helps us tell whether it's imagination, illusion, fact or fiction--that is, to distinguish between what is real and what we think is real. This, in my not so humble opinion, is often found in many other types of analysis. Hence the reason I always say, "The charts never lie." The only thing that is real is where price is at the end of the day. Price, as stated in my last blog entry, is nothing more than investor emotions plotted on a grid in the form of lines or candlesticks that show what they feel about that particular stock or security.

It has often been stated that an individual difference in intelligence can only be detected through measures of complex processes such as memory, imagination, attention and comprehension. (I don't know who said it, but I do remember it being said, which is somewhat ironic, because after all I am talking about memory. But I digress.)

Memory, imagination, attention, and comprehension all play a role in the success we have as traders and technicians. So in this blog entry, I want to explore the importance of being able to build on the strengths of what we remember, why imagination plays a vital role in pattern recognition, attention to object identification (which for years has been used to help memory), and why comprehension is roughly the same meaning as understanding.

In the study of Technical Analysis, let's break down M.I.A.C. (memory, imagination, attention, and comprehension).

1. Memory - Statistics; the set of past events affecting a given event in a stochastic process.
2. Imagination - The formation of a mental image of something that is neither perceived as real nor present to the senses.
3. Attention - Observant consideration.
4. Comprehension - Logic; the sum of meanings and corresponding implications.

Chart Pattern Recognition by definition is a grouping of "sticks on a grid" that display "sentiment," which has an outcome to the direction and distance something might move or break. With that outcome, we have attached different odds of probability to the success or failure of that pattern.

Each pattern that is identified typically forms a geometrical shape, and this is where memory and imagination come into play. First, you need to remember that different patterns have different outcomes, and different outcomes have degrees of failure and success. Second, you need to be able to see what others may not in an ever-growing world of technology that is in constant one-upmanship or who can see what may be there faster than the guy sitting next to you.

The object of the game as always is to identify the highest-probability chart patterns and milk them for all they're worth. (In the terms of beating your opponent at his own game, you have no idea who your opponent is and lastly will never know why.)

Skillful Chart Pattern Recognition also requires the ability to remain constantly vigilant for the possibility that there is no "logic" in what we are looking at and trying to understand. We often call "Expanding Triangle" patterns "Nut Hut Patterns" because they defy logic and refute the very things we instinctively know as human beings. We are told, "Higher highs are bullish." We are told, "Lower lows are bearish." The "Nut Hut Pattern" has both!

Here's an example of what the Expanding Triangle looks like:

Message Board Post

Well of course the first thing is the profits, but the next thing about being here is that after a day like today I feel no need to be concerned, worried or panicked as I would have before joining this web site.
Thank You JL

Donna

Message Board Post

John Lansing once again provides obscene profits. This time it was options. I've never had an option play in my life until I invested in John's option plays this month. I'm up an average of 108% in less than 2 weeks. Net gain $7,200!

Thanks JL

Message Board Post

Rocky

Thank you JL for this top notch educational service you so graciously provide. This is truly the "Earn while you learn" place to be. Totally agree with your KISS method regarding the option plays. Straddles, strangles, struddles, poddles, puddles, iron butterfly, sissy butterfly, or whatever KICS (keep it complicated stupid) are not the way for most folks to trade options, and I for one am one of those folks.

Thank you again JL,

Chewee

Message Board Post

JL Thanks for the profits in Sohu today I got in at 55 sold at 90

Also Thanks for WNR yesterday Profits Bring Em on !!!!

Iaranger

Message Board Post

JL, just wanted to say thanks and I hope you continue to point out patterns within patterns.
Now I'm stating this because the learning experience was very nice but I also must say I was in Qs calls at the time you started your educational explanation.

You might think I'm crazy but as you were explaning where the Qs would go down to and spring back I was playing calls and puts at the same time. I was actually able to make money on puts twice today feeling more confident with your pattern explanation in mind and holding the calls becuse of the overall trend.

The strike I was in on the puts was actually making more money than the calls were giving up so it worked out well.

However since I still have the calls if the Qs open up down tomorrow you can be sure I'm scrambling to make sure this trade is profitable.

Thanks again for a great lesson. I hope I will soon be able to see these patterns half as quickly as you do!

Sincerely, Brian